Experts release new Bengals vs. Patriots prediction after Joe Burrow ruled OUT for Week 12

The Cincinnati Bengals will take on the New England Patriots in an NFL Week 12 matchup at Paycor Stadium on Sunday, scheduled to commence at 1 p.m. EST.

All week, questions about the status of Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow have dominated Bengals-Patriots discourse. Burrow had been listed as questionable to return against the Patriots after making significant progress from a turf toe injury that has sidelined him since Week 2. He was a full participant at Wednesday and Thursday practices, and stated there were “no setbacks” through the week.

However, it has now been confirmed that Joe Burrow has been ruled out and will remain on injured reserve. Joe Flacco is set to make his sixth straight start for Cincinnati.

“I have to take into account what’s best for him,” coach Zac Taylor said regarding the decision. “He’s coming back off an injury... I have to take into account what’s the best thing for him, what’s the best thing for the team and make the soundest decision.”

In light of this development, the data analysts at Dimers updated their Bengals vs. Patriots score prediction and player stat projections after conducting new simulations that took into account Cincinnati’s roster updates, including the absence of Burrow and the one-game suspension of Ja’Marr Chase.

The results of Dimers’ simulations were compared to updated sportsbook odds to compile the data-driven Bengals-Patriots preview below.

Patriots vs. Bengals betting preview

Utilize the interactive widget below to discover the latest spread, over/under, and moneyline odds and probabilities for the Patriots-Bengals matchup at Paycor Stadium.

Check out all the important details on today’s game, as well as the best odds sourced from the top sportsbooks in the country.

Game details

The key information you need before the Patriots vs. Bengals NFL game.

• Teams: New England Patriots vs. Cincinnati Bengals
• Date: Sunday, November 23, 2025
• Kickoff: 1 p.m. EST
• Location: Paycor Stadium
• NFL standings: Current NFL division standings
• NFL injuries: Check the latest updates to the official NFL injury report

Odds

Odds for the key markets in the Patriots-Bengals NFL showdown.

• Spread: Patriots -7.5 (-110), Bengals +7.5 (-108)
• Moneyline: Patriots -375, Bengals +315
• Total: Over/Under 49.5 (-115/+100)

The odds and lines featured in this article are the best available from selected sports betting sites at the time of publication and are subject to change.

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Expert prediction: Patriots vs. Bengals

Utilizing advanced data analysis and computer power, the experts at Dimers have performed 10,000 simulations of Sunday’s Patriots vs. Bengals matchup.

According to Dimers’ renowned predictive analytics model, the Patriots are more likely to beat the Bengals at Paycor Stadium. This prediction is based on the model giving the Patriots a 72% chance of winning the game.

Furthermore, Dimers predicts that the Bengals (+7.5) have a 56% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 49.5 points has a 53% chance of staying under.

These predictions and probabilities are correct at the time of publication but are subject to potential changes.

Patriots vs. Bengals best bet

Our top pick for the Patriots vs. Bengals Week 12 NFL matchup is to bet on the Bengals moneyline (+315).

This betting advice is based on cutting-edge modeling and valuable wagering intelligence, designed to help you make more informed decisions.

While the Patriots are more likely to win the game, according to Dimers, taking the Bengals moneyline is the best option because of the 3.9% edge identified when comparing Dimers’ data-driven probabilities to the betting odds.

Score prediction for Patriots vs. Bengals

Dimers’ predicted final score for the New England vs. Cincinnati game on Sunday has the Patriots winning 27-21.

This expert prediction is based on each team’s average score following 10,000 game simulations, offering a glimpse into the potential outcome.

NFL player props: Sunday

NFL prop bets are an exciting way to wager on Sunday’s game without necessarily betting on its outcome.

This article features the most likely first and anytime touchdown scorers for the Patriots and Bengals, as well as projected player stats.

New England Patriots

First touchdown scorer predictions

• TreVeyon Henderson: 9.3% probability
• Rhamondre Stevenson: 8.8% probability
• Stefon Diggs: 7.7% probability

Anytime touchdown predictions

• TreVeyon Henderson: 43.7% probability
• Rhamondre Stevenson: 41.9% probability
• Stefon Diggs: 38.1% probability

Projected box score leaders

• QB passing yards: Drake Maye, 258 yards
• Receiving yards: Stefon Diggs, 66 yards
• Rushing yards: TreVeyon Henderson, 54 yards

Cincinnati Bengals

First touchdown scorer predictions

• Tee Higgins: 10.0% probability
• Chase Brown: 9.2% probability
• Andrei Iosivas: 4.7% probability

Anytime touchdown predictions

• Tee Higgins: 47.1% probability
• Chase Brown: 44.3% probability
• Andrei Iosivas: 25.6% probability

Projected box score leaders

• QB passing yards: Joe Flacco, 249 yards
• Receiving yards: Tee Higgins, 73 yards
• Rushing yards: Chase Brown, 61 yards

NFL Week 12: Patriots vs. Bengals

Get ready for Sunday’s game between the Patriots and Bengals in Week 12 of the NFL season at Paycor Stadium, which is scheduled to start at 1 p.m. EST. We emphasize that all of the NFL predictions and NFL best bets on this page are based on 10,000 data-driven simulations of the Patriots vs. Bengals game, and they are accurate at the time of publication to help you make more informed choices when placing bets at online sportsbooks.

Please remember to gamble responsibly and seek reliable sources for accurate and up-to-date information when making online betting choices.

If you or a loved one has questions or needs to talk to a professional about gambling, call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit 1800gambler.net for more information.