Experts release final Bills vs. Texans preview with Josh Allen projections and Keon Coleman news

The Bills head into Thursday Night Football with a bit of unexpected lineup drama, as wide receiver Keon Coleman is projected to be a healthy scratch for the second straight game. Coleman had opened the season as Buffalo’s No. 2 option, but his role has evaporated quickly, with both the player and Sean McDermott acknowledging the need for more consistency and growth.

Despite the shake-up, the Bills’ offense didn’t seem to miss a beat last week—Josh Allen threw freely and efficiently in a 44–32 win over Tampa Bay, spreading the ball to a rotation that will again include Joshua Palmer, Elijah Moore, Tyrell Shavers, Khalil Shakir, and Gabe Davis.

That receiver group will take on a larger workload against a Texans defense preparing for one of the league’s most improvisational quarterbacks. According to the 10,000-simulation model from Dimers, Buffalo enters this Week 12 matchup with a 68% chance of securing a road win at NRG Stadium, powered by projections of 231 passing yards for Allen and 81 rushing yards for James Cook. Shakir, who stepped up in Coleman’s absence, is again forecast as the Bills’ most productive receiver with about 50 yards.

Houston, however, isn’t expected to fade quietly. The model gives the Texans a 54% chance to cover the +5.5 spread, with Davis Mills projected for 218 passing yards and Nico Collins slated for a team-high 76 receiving yards. Rookie Woody Marks also profiles as Houston’s top touchdown threat. With a predicted final score of Bills 23–19, Thursday night sets up as a matchup where Buffalo’s reshuffled receiving corps must match Houston’s efficiency—and where Coleman’s continued absence adds one more storyline to a tightly forecasted game.

Bills vs. Texans betting preview

Explore the interactive widget below to discover the current spread, total, and moneyline odds and probabilities for the Bills-Texans matchup at NRG Stadium.

This prediction and best bet for Thursday’s NFL matchup between the Bills and Texans is from Dimers.com, a trusted source for sports betting predictions.

Check out all the important details on today’s game, as well as the best odds sourced from the top sportsbooks in the country.

Game details

Key information on the Bills vs. Texans matchup, including where the game is and what time it kicks off.

• Teams: Buffalo Bills vs. Houston Texans
• Date: Thursday, November 20, 2025
• Kickoff: 8:15 p.m. EST
• Location: NRG Stadium
• NFL standings: Current NFL division standings
• NFL injuries: Check the latest updates to the official NFL injury report

Odds

Odds for the key markets in the Bills-Texans NFL contest.

• Spread: Bills -5.5 (-122), Texans +5.5 (+100)
• Moneyline: Bills -285, Texans +240
• Total: Over/Under 43.5 (-102/-105)

The odds and lines presented in this article are the best available from selected sports betting sites at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Expert prediction: Bills vs. Texans

Using advanced data analysis and machine learning, the experts at Dimers have performed 10,000 simulations of Thursday’s Bills vs. Texans matchup.

According to Dimers’ independent predictive analytics model, the Bills are more likely to defeat the Texans at NRG Stadium. This prediction is based on the model giving the Bills a 68% chance of winning the game.

Furthermore, Dimers predicts that the Texans (+5.5) have a 54% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 43.5 points is considered an equal 50-50 chance of hitting.

As always, these predictions and probabilities are accurate at the time of publication but are subject to potential changes.

Bills vs. Texans best bet

Our top pick for the Bills vs. Texans Week 12 NFL matchup is to bet on the Texans +5.5 (+100).

This betting advice is based on comprehensive simulations and valuable betting intelligence, designed to help you make smarter decisions.

Score prediction for Bills vs. Texans

Dimers’ predicted final score for the Buffalo vs. Houston game on Thursday has the Bills winning 23-19.

This expert prediction is based on each team’s average score following 10,000 game simulations, offering a glimpse into the potential outcome.

NFL player props: Thursday

NFL prop bets are a popular way to wager on Thursday’s game without necessarily betting on its outcome.

This article features the most likely first and anytime touchdown scorers for the Bills and Texans, along with projected player stats.

Buffalo Bills

First touchdown scorer predictions

• James Cook: 11.7% probability
• Josh Allen: 11.0% probability
• Khalil Shakir: 5.1% probability

Anytime touchdown predictions

• James Cook: 51.9% probability
• Josh Allen: 50.0% probability
• Khalil Shakir: 27.2% probability

Projected box score leaders

• QB passing yards: Josh Allen, 231 yards
• Receiving yards: Khalil Shakir, 50 yards
• Rushing yards: James Cook, 81 yards

Houston Texans

First touchdown scorer predictions

• Woody Marks: 9.9% probability
• Nico Collins: 8.1% probability
• Dalton Schultz: 3.9% probability

Anytime touchdown predictions

• Woody Marks: 42.7% probability
• Nico Collins: 36.4% probability
• Dalton Schultz: 19.6% probability

Projected box score leaders

• QB passing yards: Davis Mills, 218 yards
• Receiving yards: Nico Collins, 76 yards
• Rushing yards: Woody Marks, 64 yards

NFL Week 12: Bills vs. Texans

Get ready for Thursday’s matchup between the Bills and Texans in Week 12 of the NFL season at NRG Stadium, which is scheduled to start at 8:15 p.m. EST. We emphasize that all of the NFL predictions and NFL best bets in this preview are based on 10,000 data-driven simulations of the Bills vs. Texans matchup, and they are correct at the time of publishing. They aim to help you make better decisions when placing bets at online sportsbooks.

It is important to gamble responsibly and seek trustworthy sources for accurate and up-to-date information when making online betting decisions.

If you or a loved one has questions or needs to talk to a professional about gambling, call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit 1800gambler.net for more information.