Colts vs. Chiefs matchup breakdown: Spread, total, and player projections

The Colts travel to Arrowhead on Sunday for a matchup that projects to be tight, fast-paced, and high-scoring. Kansas City enters as a 3.5-point favorite, backed by Dimers’ 10,000-simulation model giving the Chiefs a 62% chance to win at home. Patrick Mahomes is projected for 273 passing yards with Rashee Rice leading the receiving outlook at 77 yards, while Kareem Hunt carries both the highest first-touchdown and anytime-touchdown probability for Kansas City. With Oddsmakers posting a total of 49.5—and the model giving a 53% chance it goes over—the expectation is that both offenses will have opportunities to push the pace.

Indianapolis, though, matches up well statistically and enters with its own set of playmakers capable of keeping the game close. Daniel Jones is projected for 243 yards through the air, with Jonathan Taylor pacing the offense behind an 87-yard rushing projection and the highest scoring probability of any player in the matchup. The model gives both teams an equal 50% chance to cover the spread, and the predicted final score of Chiefs 26–23 reflects just how narrow the margin may be. With reliable scoring threats on each sideline and both quarterbacks expected to be productive, Sunday sets up as one of Week 12’s most competitive early-window games.

Colts vs. Chiefs betting preview

Explore the interactive widget below to view the current spread, total, and moneyline betting odds and probabilities for the Colts-Chiefs game at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium.

This prediction and best bet for Sunday’s NFL matchup between the Colts and Chiefs is from Dimers.com, a leader in sports betting predictions.

Check out all the important details on today’s game, as well as the best odds sourced from the top sportsbooks in the country.

Game details

The key information you need before the Colts vs. Chiefs NFL game.

• Teams: Indianapolis Colts vs. Kansas City Chiefs
• Date: Sunday, November 23, 2025
• Kickoff: 1 p.m. EST
• Location: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
• NFL standings: Current NFL division standings
• NFL injuries: Check the latest updates to the official NFL injury report

Odds

Odds for the key markets in the Colts-Chiefs NFL matchup.

• Spread: Colts +3.5 (-115), Chiefs -3.5 (-102)
• Moneyline: Colts +156, Chiefs -185
• Total: Over/Under 49.5 (-110/-105)

The odds and lines featured here are the best available from selected sports betting sites at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Promos

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Expert prediction: Colts vs. Chiefs

Leveraging state-of-the-art data analysis and machine learning, the experts at Dimers have performed 10,000 simulations of Sunday’s Colts vs. Chiefs game.

According to Dimers’ famous predictive analytics model, the Chiefs are more likely to beat the Colts at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. This prediction is based on the model giving the Chiefs a 62% chance of winning the game.

Furthermore, Dimers predicts that the bookies have gotten it right and the Colts and Chiefs each have a 50% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 49.5 points has a 53% chance of going over.

As always, these predictions and probabilities are correct at the time of publication but are subject to potential changes.

Colts vs. Chiefs best bet

Our top pick for the Colts vs. Chiefs Week 12 NFL game is to bet on Over 49.5 points (-110).

This expert betting advice is formulated through cutting-edge modeling and valuable wagering intelligence, designed to bring you the best possible plays.

Score prediction for Colts vs. Chiefs

Dimers’ predicted final score for the Indianapolis vs. Kansas City game on Sunday has the Chiefs winning 26-23.

This expert prediction is based on each team’s average score following 10,000 game simulations, offering a glimpse into the potential outcome.

NFL player props: Sunday

NFL player prop picks are an enjoyable way to wager on Sunday’s game without necessarily betting on its outcome.

This article features the most likely first and anytime touchdown scorers for the Colts and Chiefs, as well as projected player stats.

Indianapolis Colts

First touchdown scorer predictions

• Jonathan Taylor: 17.2% probability
• Tyler Warren: 5.1% probability
• Michael Pittman: 4.6% probability

Anytime touchdown predictions

• Jonathan Taylor: 67.9% probability
• Tyler Warren: 28.5% probability
• Michael Pittman: 26.3% probability

Projected box score leaders

• QB passing yards: Daniel Jones, 243 yards
• Receiving yards: Alec Pierce, 60 yards
• Rushing yards: Jonathan Taylor, 87 yards

Kansas City Chiefs

First touchdown scorer predictions

• Kareem Hunt: 11.4% probability
• Rashee Rice: 9.3% probability
• Travis Kelce: 6.8% probability

Anytime touchdown predictions

• Kareem Hunt: 52.3% probability
• Rashee Rice: 45.1% probability
• Travis Kelce: 35.6% probability

Projected box score leaders

• QB passing yards: Patrick Mahomes, 273 yards
• Receiving yards: Rashee Rice, 77 yards
• Rushing yards: Kareem Hunt, 56 yards

NFL Week 12: Colts vs. Chiefs

Get ready for Sunday’s matchup between the Colts and Chiefs in Week 12 of the National Football League season at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, which is scheduled to start at 1 p.m. EST. We emphasize that all of the NFL predictions and NFL best bets on this page are derived from 10,000 data-driven simulations of the Colts vs. Chiefs game, and they are correct at the time of publication. They aim to help you make more informed choices when placing bets at online sportsbooks.

It is important to gamble responsibly and seek trustworthy sources for the latest and most accurate information when making online betting choices.

If you or a loved one has questions or needs to talk to a professional about gambling, call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit 1800gambler.net for more information.