Syracuse-area home building slumps when it needs to grow. Why are we stuck?

Syracuse, N.Y. — The need for new housing in Onondaga County has never been greater. Yet, shockingly, the pace of building has slowed in recent years.

Fewer new houses and apartments were completed last year in Onondaga County than in any of the last 25 years, according to county property records, with one exception: the pandemic year of 2021. And data on building permits suggest that 2025 may not be any better.

The local home-building industry is stuck in low gear, producing a meager supply of new houses and apartments each year. That drives up competition for existing homes, making it harder to find a decent place to live at an affordable price. Rents are high, and the price of existing homes is surging.

The need for more housing will only grow. Construction is expected to begin later this year on Micron Technology’s chip fabs in Clay, a massive project that will bring new residents to the area.

County leaders say builders are preparing a wave of new projects that will jolt the housing market soon. But those plans have yet to make a substantial impact.

Related: Ryan McMahon cites a ‘pipeline’ of housing projects, but it’s filled with uncertainty

Only 588 units of new housing were built last year — 196 single-family homes and 392 apartments — according to Onondaga County property records. Except for the pandemic year of 2021, that’s the lowest production in at least 25 years.

This year looks to be worse, according to Census data through the end of July.

Builders pulled only 218 building permits during the first seven months of this year, according to surveys by the Census Bureau. That’s 21% fewer than the 279 permits obtained through July in 2024.

The numbers are smaller across the board: Single-family permits are down 12%; multifamily permits are down 46%.

From the moment Micron said it was coming, local officials recognized that building housing would be a critical challenge.

“There’s going to be a massive amount of new housing,” said Robert Simpson, president of business group CenterState CEO, in 2022.

So far, this hasn’t materialized. New construction is plodding along at the same sluggish pace it’s kept for two decades.

Onondaga County Executive Ryan McMahon told Syracuse.com that he isn’t worried. There’s plenty of housing in the pipeline, he said.

The county planning agency is tracking dozens of proposed housing projects representing roughly 16,000 new units that have been put forward since Micron announced its intentions in 2022. McMahon said construction is likely to get under way soon on some of those housing projects.

“The fact that we’re seeing this many units in the planning stages, before we have a shovel in the ground (at Micron), I think it’s pretty good,” McMahon said.

Many of the projects being tracked by county officials are in very early stages of planning and have not yet applied for municipal approvals. They could be years from completion or may never happen at all. County officials concede that about half the 16,000 units cited by McMahon are still too tentative to be publicized by the county.

Even among the projects that are currently under review by local planning boards — totaling more than 6,600 units, according to the county — many face an uncertain fate. Some have yet to secure government funding. Others have been turned down for zone changes.

There are 1,440 units under construction this year.

Micron could worsen prices

According to Micron’s draft environmental impact statement, the surge of construction and plant workers moving into the area could be difficult for Onondaga County to absorb, at least initially.

The increased demand for housing “could lead to increases in property values, home purchase prices, and residential rents,” the document states. ”This, in turn, could lead to the indirect displacement of local ... residents unable to afford rent increases."

But even without Micron, many local residents struggle with high rents. Some 45% of all renters in the county are “cost burdened,” meaning they spend more than 30% of their income on rent, according to the county’s Plan Onondaga comprehensive planning document.

The slow trickle of new housing has not eased that pressure.

Thanks to inflation, tariffs, labor shortages and regulatory red tape, the local cost of new construction now exceeds $300 per square foot, said Mary Thompson, CEO of the Home Builders and Remodelers of Central New York. That means a typical single-family detached home often costs $500,000 or more.

Multifamily construction is equally challenging. Without big subsidies, builders say they can only put up apartments for high-end residents.

“It’s a tough game,” builder David Muraco said. “It’s gotten a lot tougher now.”

Muraco recently finished building the Residences at LeMoyne Manor, a 66-unit complex on the shore of Onondaga Lake and one of the few apartment developments to come online this year. The one- and two-bedroom apartments go for $2,400 to $2,650 a month.

“That’s high rent. But I have to do it because I spent $15 million there, building it. Ten years ago, (it) would be $10 million,” he said.

The average rent in Onondaga County was $1,689 in August, up more than 40% from five years ago, according to data from Zillow.

Simpson last year called the housing shortage “the greatest emerging challenge to our economic success, sustainability, and equity.”

What housing looks like

A key obstacle is zoning. Experts say Onondaga County needs a tidal wave of apartments, row houses and other dense development and less of the traditional large-lot suburban single-family homes.

But a 2023 study by CNY Fair Housing found that only 1% of land outside the city of Syracuse is zoned for multifamily development without a special permit. County officials are working with towns and villages to try to change that.

For housing to get more affordable, it will be necessary to reverse the trend of building ever-larger homes, builder Dan Barnaba said.

“I think we’re going to have to rethink what housing looks like,” Barnaba said. “You look at the ‘40s and ‘50s, and 1,000 square feet, 1,200 square feet, with a one-car garage and a single bath was an acceptable home. We haven’t built those in 60,70 years.”

One of the factors that can drive up the cost of any new home, builders say, is the time it takes to get approval to build from municipal planning boards.

Muraco said the town of Salina moved his apartment project along smoothly, but he has faced long delays on proposals in other towns.

Barnaba has been fighting the town of Van Buren for nearly a year trying to rezone a 12-acre parcel so he could build houses on less than one-acre lots. The dispute is pending in court.

It typically takes years to develop building lots, Barnaba said.

“There’s very few agencies or municipalities that have a streamlined process,” he said. “My projects are on two- to three-year runways, sometimes four to five years.”

Despite the obstacles, McMahon said he expects builders to pick up the pace soon. There are 125 single-family homes and 1,308 apartments currently in some stage of construction, according to county planners. And roughly 7,000 additional units are under review by municipal agencies.

“The projects are there,” McMahon said. “It’s just execution.”

Syracuse city officials are hoping 2026 brings a surge of new housing.

Three planned affordable housing developments totaling 675 units are all poised to close on their state funding by the end of this year, said Michael Collins, commissioner of neighborhood and business development.

If the deals come together, construction could begin early next year on 288 apartments and townhouses at the former Syracuse Developmental Center, 156 units at the former Maria Regina College, and 258 units in the East Adams Street corridor.

More than half of all the proposed housing in the county is in Syracuse and the town of Clay, planning records show. But to meet demand, development will have to increase in other towns too, especially those with desirable school districts, experts say.

McMahon said there may be resistance to clustering smaller homes and apartments in suburban towns and villages that are more accustomed to one-acre lots, but he expects that to change, gradually.

“At some point, these communities are going to want to grow their tax base and realize that the acre lot size doesn’t work necessarily everywhere anymore,” McMahon said. “You’re going to have to create more density. And you can do that and still have nice neighborhoods. You can blend in different types of housing and still have nice neighborhoods. … People are getting there.”

County Legislator Maurice Brown, a Syracuse Democrat, said he thinks the local housing market will need some financial incentives from government to get up to speed. Brown serves on the board of the Greater Syracuse Land Bank, which is applying to New York’s new revolving loan fund for mixed-income apartments to support a development in Syracuse.

Low-interest loans are one way government could spur development. Without help, the free market is not responding fast enough, he said.

“It’s not very profitable to build the amount of housing we need, and as long as it’s not profitable, no one’s going to invest in it,” Brown said.

Staff writer Tim Knauss can be reached at: email|Twitter| 315-470-3023.