Are we really getting $2,000 tariff dividend checks from Trump? What to know

President Donald Trump has been floating a plan for $2,000 tariff dividend checks for weeks.

It’s true that Trump’s tariffs are bringing in more revenue for the federal government. And Trump has said he wants to direct some of that extra cash to Americans.

But how realistic is that plan? Are we really getting tariff dividend checks?

Online betting sites suggest the answer is no, according to Fortune.

One site, Kalshi, puts the odds of the checks happening at just 2%. And that’s not even at Trump’s suggested $2,000 level. Those odds reflect the chance of a $1,000 payment.

The odds are also 1% at another site, Polymarket, according to Fortune.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent was asked about the checks in a recent interview with Maria Bartiromo on Fox News’ “Sunday Morning Futures,” according to USA Today.

He said the administration would need legislation for the plan to move forward, but added the checks “could go out.” He also said the payments would be for working families, according to USA Today.

Votes for the checks in Congress might not be there.

Members concerned about the federal deficit were reluctant earlier this year to back Trump’s tax cut bill. A new round of stimulus checks would add to those worries, according to CNN.

CNN also noted that the checks could worsen affordability problems. A wave of spending sparked by the checks could cause supply problems in the economy, which might raise prices.

Perhaps the biggest obstacle is that the new revenue from Trump’s tariffs isn’t enough to cover the checks.

While the tariffs are expected to raise over $158 billion in 2025 and another $207 billion in 2026, the cost of the checks could be billions more than that, according to estimates from the Tax Foundation cited by CNN.

In addition, some of the new tariffs are at risk in an ongoing Supreme Court case that challenged their legality.

“If the Supreme Court says the bulk of the tariffs are illegal, that could throw a wrench in the tariff rebate plan,” said Erica York, vice president of federal tax policy at the Tax Foundation, according to CNN.